AFL Finals Week 3 Betting Predictions: Sydney, Geelong grand final?
Collingwood and Brisbane have stormed into the preliminary finals weekend to take on Sydney and Geelong.
The Lions surprised most when they took down the reigning premiers, Melbourne, at the MCG.
Chris Fagan’s men hadn’t won at the home of football since 2014 but also struggled against the Demons in recent times, breaking another drought on the night.
The Pies were also super impressive against Fremantle on the Saturday night, leading from the outset and never looking back.
Collingwood have now put together two strong finals performances and go into the clash with the Swans with a head of steam, as the club believes an upset is on the cards.
Here at The Sporting News, we’ve put together our betting predictions for week three of the finals:
Odds courtesy of BlueBet as at 15/9/22.
In the second week of the finals, we scored four out of six, with Jack Crisp and Jack Viney both missing 25+ disposal marks.
Geelong vs Brisbane (MCG)
No one would’ve thought that Brisbane would find themselves in the preliminary final against Geelong but here they are.
Knocking off Richmond and Melbourne in consecutive weeks, their eyes turn to the Cats, who they historically match up well against.
Of the past three encounters (two at GMHBA Stadium), Geelong have held on to two wins by a combined margin of 11 points while the Lions took away one victory by 44 points in round 15 last year.
With the almost-certain return of Joe Daniher and Oscar McInerney, Fagan’s men are almost at full strength and are poised to cause an upset and find themselves in the grand final for the first time since 2004.
For this to happen, Harris Andrews and Darcy Gardiner have to be on song to curb the influence of Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins.
The Lions will think they have the upperhand in the midfield, with a more superior ruckman and an elite on-field brigade at the feet of McInerney.
However, Brisbane’s ultimate strength is their ability to put scores on the board, boasting a forward line consisting of Charlie Cameron, Zac Bailey, Eric Hipwood and Daniher.
Hipwood and Cameron have kicked 13 goals between them in the past two weeks and will need to replicate similar performances against one of the premier defensive line ups.
On the other side of the coin is the minor premiers, Geelong, who haven’t put a foot wrong in their 14 match winning streak.
With heavy hearts a fortnight ago against a valiant Collingwood outfit, it was Gary Rohan who stepped up when his side needed it most.
Can he do it again?
Chris Scott has formulated one of the best teams for the past decade, with yet another edition apparent in 2022.
Combining a slow, methodical approach whilst in possession of the ball with erratic, fast movement has opposition sides wishing for this nightmare to be over.
Extremely well set up behind the ball and a breadth of experience throughout the entire field, the Cats are poised to go past this weekend to the big dance. But how?
First and foremost, Geelong must put a stop to Brisbane’s uncanny ability to score, forcing turnovers before they get a chance inside 50.
As is the Lions’ kryptonite this year, quick ball movement from turnover which doesn’t allow their defenders to get set could ultimately win the Cats the game, so long as Hawkins, Cameron and Rohan all get on the end of many.
Despite playing one game in 26 days, Geelong should be well prepared as they have been in this position many times.
1. Jeremy Cameron 2+ goals – $1.45
2. Lachie Neale 30+ disposals – $2.05
3. Charlie Cameron 2+ goals – $1.75
3-leg Multi-bet – $5.20
Sydney vs Collingwood (SCG)
Sydney come in as strong favourites for this one, especially given the home ground advantage.
The two teams met in round 22 at the same ground, where the Swans ended Collingwood’s 11-game winning streak and putting a stamp on the competition as a genuine contender.
Since then, John Longmire’s men haven’t lost including putting Melbourne through misery in the first week of the finals.
However, given the pre-finals bye and the mandatory week off for winning a qualifying final, the Swans – alike Geelong – have played one match in 26 days, which hasn’t always boded well.
The Swans have won their past eight matches and will give themselves every chance of returning to the grand final for the first time since 2016.
What stood out last time in round 22 was the fact that Sydney denied the Pies of any chance to put speed on the ball, controlling the air and forcing them into turnovers.
Paddy McCartin had nine intercepts against Collingwood and also kept Brody Mihocek and Mason Cox to one goal each, with the latter heading into the ruck at times.
McCartin’s efforts were also joined by Callum Mills, Luke Parker and James Rowbottom, who were clearly on top in a Jordan De Goey-less midfield.
The Swans trifecta proved their worth on the finals stage, beating comfortably the likes of Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver and Jack Viney a fortnight ago.
If Sydney want the upperhand, then this is what they should focus on.
However, as is the Magpies’ 2022 campaign, the club screams unpredictability, highlighted by their winning streak and games won under two goals.
Craig McRae has given his players the belief to do anything, with the team never putting limits on what they can achieve.
As the Pies showed last week, their game style is forcing turnovers between the arcs, with full frontal pressure on the ball carrier.
What happens next is they tend to attack the corridor with speed and dare, usually catching opposition defenders out.
In round 22, the Swans prevented much of the ball use going through the centre, leaving the Pies to scrap, suiting the home side.
For Collingwood to cause an upset, you’d think that the midfielders, led by De Goey, would have to get on top or at least break even.
We know that statistics don’t necessarily apply to the black-and-white side but in the penultimate week, it just has to.
Another key area is ensuring the ball comes to ground up forward, with the likes of Jamie Elliot, Jack Ginnivan and Beau McCreery coming into play.
Big focus on Mason Cox, Darcy Cameron, Ash Johnson and Mihocek for the Pies.
Leaning towards Sydney for this one, but who knows, anything is possible in the finals.
1. Sam Reid 2+ goals – $3.25
2. Jordan De Goey 20+ disposals – $1.30
3. Collingwood +17.5 Line – $1.90
3-leg Multi-bet – $8.03
Bet with BlueBet this AFL finals series! Back a team head-to-head and if they lead by 12+ points at half-time, you win!